What are you looking at? Week 11, 2011
- regardless of conference, Colorado will always be a recreation league school.
- Taylor Martinez is a poor man's Landry Jones and the Huskers will never win the B1G one with him at the helm.
- Oklahoma Sooners have yet to put four quarters of football together in one game.
- That if I go to sleep in the 4th quarter in the game of the century, God will make sure and wake me up with an earthquake or some natural disaster
Here's what I looking out for on this week's games.
11:00 The Train Wreck Bowl #19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State ESPN
None of us will admit to it, but we all like to watch a good train wreck. We'll cover our eyes but always end up peeking through. Well here's your chance to see it in football. Penn State comes into this one ranked #1 in their side of the B1G with the 100th ranked scoring offense in the country going up against a pretty porous defense on the Husker side allowing almost 350 yards per game. Penn state's #3 scoring D will get tested with a steady dose of the #13 Rushing O from the huskers. Neither team plays from behind too well with the 88th(PSU) and 101st (NU) ranked passing offenses but when they do, the Nittany Lions are more efficient. Penn State front four is 12th and 28th in Tackles for Loss and Sacks in the country.
Line: Nebraska favored by 3 on the road. I think they win this one for Joe Pa with the D of Penn State making the Difference.
2:30 #20 Auburn at #15 Georgia CBS
Like they say in College Station, you can't spell Defense without SEC. The Dawgs are 7th in total defense while the Tigers think they are in the Big 12 with an option defense that's 75th in the country allowing an average of 27 points per game. Neither offense is really worth talking about other than the Dawgs are quite a bit better and more consistent with Aaron Murray at QB they average scoring about 34 per game with a fairly even run pass mix. The Tigers have only won one road game at South Carolina this year. All others have been losses with an average margin of 24 points.
Line: The Dawgs are giving 11.5 at home. I'm taking the Dawgs to cover that even after both teams had a bye week last week.
7:00 #7 Oregon at #4 Stanford ABC
This one is really strength on strength with a little Luck on the side. Oregon's #5 rushing offense vs Stanford's #3 rushing defense. Oregon's passing offense (#78) isn't much to speak of but Stanford's #58 pass efficiency D could make them look pretty two dimensional.
Stanford averages 48 points per game on offense while Oregon averages 46 (40 on the road). Both front four on the D side are really good and will make the QB's think.
Line: Stanford is giving 3.5 at home. I think the smart Tree Cardinals are too disciplined to fall for Oregon's trickeration.
Quick Kicks
- Will Texas Tech Sand Aggies end up being the State Champions of Oklahoma? (Ok St -20)
- Will the Ole Ball Coach annihilate his Alma Mater or is he playing for the AD job? (SC - 2.5)
- Will Iowa continue their attempt to sneak in the back door of a conference championship with another surprise win at home over Sparty? (Sparty -2.5)
- Will the Hilltoppers get past the 50 against LSU?
What are you lookin at? Week 10 2011
It's week 10 and the pretenders have all been exposed for who they really are. Here's what I'm looking for in today's best matchups.
For a pregame snack I'm cooking up a pulled pork 3 way. Pork sliders with a pineapple chutney, pork soft tacos with asian slaw and pork sandwiches with Qdaddy BBQ sauce.
2:30 Texas A&M at #6 Oklahoma ABC
Both of these teams can put up some points with the #2 (OU) and #7 total offenses in the country this game could see 1000 yards of offense. A&M has a lot more balance on offense than OU with a run/pass ranking of 16/17 in the nation. The sooners on the other hand rely on a screen passes as long handoffs which helps explain their 51st ranked rushing O. On defense is where the big difference comes. The Aggies are 90th in total D and 84th in pass efficiency D and 120 out of 120 teams in pass defense. The only other number that matter are the Aggies 110th in turnover margin
OU is giving 13.5 at home still smarting from Tech embarrassing them at home. I'm taking the Sooners to cover.
After the Sooners game it's back to the tailgate for some taco soup and more foosball as they say in the South.
7:00#1 LSU at #2 Alabama CBS
This is your typical SEC battle. Not a ton of points put up in this one because it's all going to be Defense. Both teams ranked statistically in the top 10 in pretty much every category.
The slight differences are on offense where Bama allows 1 sack per game. LSU doesn't pass much but when they do, their 8th ranked pass efficiency could make a difference compared to Bama's 35th ranking. Bama has a better run game with Trent Richardson.
I would not bet this game but for recreational purposes only I think this is the year for the evil hatted honey badger.
Bama is favored by 5. I'm taking LSU and the 5 points.
7:00#14 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State ABC
In the flipback game of the week because that's what you'll be doing on the LSU game commercial timeouts, you've got the high flying Okie State fighting Weedens and scrappy K State Snyders. What Okie lite doesn't have in a run game (41st) it makes up for with in passing with #4 passing O in the country. Kansas State has relied on getting ahead and grinding it out with their 20th ranked rushing O. The Pokes will score at will against K State's 103rd ranked pass D. K-State will score some points against OSU's 62nd ranked scoring D.
While Defense wins championships, outscoring your opponent wins games.
Osu is favored by 21. I think they cover and keep winning until the heartbreaker against OU. 
What are you looking at? Week 6 2011
11:00 (Really?) #1 OU at #11 Texas (ABC)
Whoever thought an 11:00 AM game at the texass state fair was a good idea should be beaten. The only thing open before 10am is the car show and while they do sell beer there, it's hard to get around because of all of the carts. The whorns come to the cotton bowl with their quarterback wonderwheel with a 15th ranked pass efficiency and the 5th ranked pass efficiency defense. Horns are tied for 7th in turnover margin, which is 14 places better than the Sooners who have had some ball protection issues lately. Horns will probably try to exploit bad positioning by the Sooners D just like Mizzou a couple weeks ago. OU will lead with a healthy dose of the run game against Texsa 34th ranked rushing D.
Sooners are favored by 11. My crimson colored glasses are telling me that OU covers.
2:30 #17 Florida at #1 LSU
The Gators come in to Death Valley reeling from their home loss to Bama last week. LSU doesn't have much of a passing game(101st) but they really haven't had to still scoring an average of 27 ppg once they got into SEC play. The Florida front on D hasn't been the difference maker that they've been in the past being pretty mediocre in both tackles for loss and sacks. When the Gators have the ball, they'll lead with Demps and Rainey while trying to keep freshman Jeff Driskoll and the Gators 86th ranked passing offense ahead of the chains. LSU's defense will dominate the gators.
Vegas says LSU by 14. I haven't seen anything from the Gators that convinces me otherwise.
The 7pm slot is a toss up. Really can't stomach another SEC game with Auburn at Arkansas or a putrid B1G matchup with the Buckeyes at Nebraska. May just watch Texas A&M collapse in the 2nd half against Tech. It's like watching a train wreck, but who doesn't like that?
I'm thinking that I'm smoking a pork loin and making tacos for a mid afternoon snack.
What are you lookin at? Week 4, 2011
Welcome to "Someone has to Lose" Saturday. Another week has gone by and the Sooners have won the biggest road game since 2003. Now we will see if they have a hangover versus Mizzou or if they can keep up the intensity in this road game. Here's what I'm watching.
2:30 #14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama
Both teams are 3-0 so someone has to lose. Arkansas ranks 11th in total offense in their 3 games against Patsy, Patsy and Troy this year. It took the Tide some time to get rolling against Penn State who is basicly your typical luke warm Big10 school. Look for Bama's #2 scoring D to put the clamps down on the Hogs and their "first team to 50 wins" 8th ranked scoring offense. Both teams have had some protection issues on the O line so I won't be surprised if there is at least one defensive touchdown in this game.
Vegas is saying Alabama by 12.5. I think Arkansas keeps it interesting so I'm taking the the Hogs and the points.
2:30 #7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M
The Pokes are playing Option Defense this year, meaning defense is optional and they are not playing any. The Aggies and Cyrus Gray have managed to put some points on the board in their 2 games as well. The Aggies have no turnovers and have allowed no sacks while eating up 450+ yards per game in their games. The Pokes have put up impressive numbers on offense and are ranked #3 in scoring offense in the country. Whichever team gets the most stops on D wins.
Aggies are favored by 3 at home. I'm taking the Aggies to play some solid D, get a couple three and outs and win this one at home in their farewell Big 12 tour.
7:00 Missouri at #1 Oklahoma
Mizzou has managed to get rolling after their close one against Miami (Ohio) and the loss to Arizona state, they walloped directional illinois behind James Franklin (think poor man's EJ Manuel). Look for the Sooner passing game to exploit the Tigers 79th ranked pass efficiency D. Both teams have had some turnover issues but I expect the Sooners to come in with a bit of a hangover from last weekend and turn it on in Q2.
Oklahoma is giving 21 at home. Sooners cover this one but it's only in the 20's and as close as a Jimmy Stevens knuckleball PAT.
On the tailgate menu we're having Hatch Chili burgers, Cuban burgers and California Burgers.
What are you lookin at? Week 3, 2011
11:00 #18 West Virginia at Maryland ESPNU
In their first outing the Terps sans chubby guy defeated a depleted and demoralized Miami team. While the Mountaineers beat up on Marshall and hapless Norfolk state. This should be a good test for both teams. On offense, lots of throwing it around with Geno Smith and Danny O'Brien leading top 20 passing offenses. This will be a long game as neither offense has a running game to speak of. The key will be on defense. In this "first team to 50 wins" matchup, whoever gets the most stops out of their D will win it.
Vegas says Maryland by 2. I'm taking Maryland at home and giving 2 points.
2:30 #23 Texas at UCLA ABC
Oh how I have grown to hate the words "McCoy to Shipley" but it seems the horns have found another pair of life partners from those ill fated families. The horns had an impressive win against BYU last week and UCLA lost it's first game to a barely relevant Houston. Texas has shown some toughness with it's 15th ranked D which is what they will need on the road against UCLA and their 22nd ranked offense. In the game of field position, UCLA loses with their 100th ranked kick returns and 103rd ranked punting. Also with UCLA's lack of a pass rush, it should be a red letter day for the Texas QB's.
Horns are getting 3 1/2 on the road and while I always love to see them lose, I also love a good train wreck which is what UCLA is. I'm taking the horns and hoping the value of my OU-Texas tickets go up on ebay.
7:00 #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State
This one is getting a bit chippy with all the pregame talk about payback from last year and the twitter zombie. Even with all the talk of dual threat EJ Manuel, the Noles are primarily a passing first team with a 78th ranked rushing offense. Look for the Noles to exploit inexperience at the safety and linebacker positions for OU. That means running backs out on screens, slashing runs right up the gut and some pump fake wheel routes by receivers. Sooner offense will keep it as vanilla as they have to but look for a breakout game by Hanna on some TE routes that the sooners didn't really show against Tulsa. Sooners are awful against ranked teams on the road and we will see if this is an exception.
Oklahoma is favored by 3. I'm drinking my okie state "this is the year" koolaid and hesitantly picking the Sooners.
What are you lookin at? Week 3, 2011 Thursday edition
As we get a little closer to conference play, we are starting to see who the contenders and pretenders are and that will continue to prove out this week. Here's what I'm watching starting thursday night.
7:00 #3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State ESPiN
At the beginning of the season when Miss St came out in the top 25 I was wondering what in the world people were thinking. But I've come to the conclusion that the 1-1 Bulldogs are not as awful as I thought they were. They have a solid running game with Ballard and are tied for 5th in total offense. LSU (2-0) has a horrible offense but they win games so far with ball control, defense and special teams getting good field position.
LSU is favored by 3 on the road. Offense sells tickets, defense wins games and special teams wins championships. I'm picking LSU to cover. 
What are you lookin at? Saturday Sept 10th
New season and some things don't change. I'm still concerned about OU's run game and defense in their win against Tulsa. Here's your slate of what I'm watching on Saturday.
11:20 ESPN Gameplan
#16 Mississippi State at Auburn
Miss State is favored by 5 1/2. Last week Miss St put on a clinic against Memphis and padded their stats while Auburn struggled at home against Utah State. Auburn's 94th ranked rushing O should get a shot in the arm against the Bulldogs 77th ranked rushing D from last week. I'm picking the Home dog and the points.
6:00 ESPN2
Byu at #24 Texas
Texas has played BYU and lost both times. BYU is getting 5 points on this one. BYU didn't impress last week at Ole Miss. All they did was win. Texas dominated the powerful Rice Owls. BYU won on the road against a much tougher team. I think BYU jumps on Tejas and doesn't let up and Texas is floating in after their powderpuff matchup last week. I''ve got BYU and the points.
What are you looking at? Saturday Sept 2, 2011
Just to recap, I'm 1-0 on my picks for the season. Wisconsin blistered Nevada who gave up on the run game waaaaaaay to early in my opinion. Nevada was ripping them up the middle. And Wildcats eeked one out against the Hilltoppers and once again proved why OJ likes to hide out in Lexington. Because nobody would look for a Heisman trophy winner in Lexington.
Here's what I've got cooking on Saturday. Smoked brisket tacos with an asian slaw and pulled pork sandwiches on corn bread rolls with an apple slaw. And here's what I'll be watching.
2:30 NBC
USF at #16 Notre Dame
While I don't think that Skip Holtz has had enough time to turn the Bulls around, I think that South Florida is underrated and had a pretty decent team last year and they bring back a good number of starters from an 8-5 team with the mental toughness to win two games in OT on the road last year. The Bulls had a top third defense last year and that should stay consistent. The Irish come into the season overrated because of their name. Brian Kelly has had some time to put his system in place but he has a lot of work to do with a team who's run game (92nd) was non-existent and their special teams looked more like special ed.
The Irish are giving 8.5. While I'm cheering against the Catholics (47), I think their depth gives them the edge to cover.
Unfortunately the best two games are on while I be sweating it off at Owen Field (and not the one I'm watching).
7:00 ABC
#3 Oregon vs #4 LSU
It's the probation bowl in Jerry World. Not sure what the mad hatter has in his hat for this one. This one is really a battle between Oregon's offense (#1 in total offense and scoring offense lsat year) and LSU's defense(#11th scoring D) last year. LSU is going to struggle getting out of it's own way to score just like last year (86th in total offense last year). They should have home field advantage in Dallas. The spread is LSU minus 3. I think Oregon speed on the edges and the fact that LSU is missing JJ helps the Ducks win.
7:00 ESPN
#5 Boise State at #19 Georgia
Mark Richt is on the hot seat. Georgia was a pretty serviceable team in 2011 with their biggest flaw being their run game (#73 rushing offense). Kellen Moore is missing one of his top targets and the Broncos have two other starter who are being held out and it doesn't matter. All Chris Peterson does is come in to tough environments and win. Boise State's defense will be a difference maker against an inexperienced Dawg offense.
Georgia is getting 2.5 at home. I'm taking the Bronco's to cover.
7:00 FX
Tulsa at #1 Oklahoma
Sooner fans need to remember that there's only one ranking that counts and it's not the one at the beginning of the season. Tulsa is no slouch and comes in off of a 10-3 season last year, a salty offense that can score some points and a 7 game winning streak. Sooners start out the season missing a couple key pieces of their defense that was pretty good against the pass (#8 pass efficiency D) but not so great on the run (58th rushing D). This is a bit of a rivalry game for Tulsa and their players will come in with something to prove to the in state team that overlooked them.
The Sooners are giving 22 and barring the appearance of Dirty Landry Jones the Sooners will cover (just barely).
And since I didn't pick tonight's game against the spread. TCU is giving 10 points to Baylor. TCU's stingy defense is enough to cover.
Fear the Smurf Turf.
What are you looking at? Season kickoff special 2011
By this time next week, I’ll have watched at least four full CFB games and eaten way too much at my tailgate and stayed up way to late. Not to mention missing the best (and only games featuring two ranked teams)games of the weekend because I'm sitting in the oppressive Oklahoma heat watching the Sooners spank the hapless hurricanes. Mrs FBJ says "it's the home opener honey."
While I'm really excited about the season, some people will do anything for their football including playing in a hurricane. Wonder how many fans sat through that one? However, this could be the best hurricane related football news that we've heard in a while. http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/28/div-ii-schools-scoff-in-irenes-general-direction-open-2011-season/related/
Thursday I’m watching UNLV at Wisconsin. In the Rose Bowl, the Badgers departed from their game plan and fell into the trap of “we’re just going to overpower the hapless Horned Frogs.” I would almost say that their loss can be directly attributed to their coach’s ego getting in the way, but that never happens to Bret Bielema. I’m pretty sure the #11 Badgers will handle a UNLV team that finished 98th in rushing and 109th in passing in 2010.
Friday it’s the winner of the 2011 Rose Bowl versus Briles Baylor Bears. The Horned Frogs are breaking in a new QB in Casey Pachal and who better to do that on than the team that was 104th in defense last year. Baylor’s awesome home field advantage will probably be a benefit (for TCU) since Baylor’s stadium is usually filled by fans of the other team. This one should be no exception given the short drive from Fort Worth to Waco. This one really comes down to one question: Can Robert Griffin score more points against the stingy TCU defense than TCU can score. No. TCU wins by 10.
Next post, you'll get my Saturday breakdown and tailgate menu.
We got spirit. Yes we do....
Are the 2011 Sooners THAT team?
Sooner fans have already circled the September 17th when OU visits Tallahassee as the early make or break game in a schedule that is favorable to make a run at the National Championship.
The mark of a team that can win the championship is the ability to win on the road. Being able to win on the road is not enough. A championship caliber team has to be able to beat top rated teams, on the road and come from behind to quiet 80,000+ rabid fans on a fall Saturday afternoon. Neutral site games do not count.
Now that I’ve put it that way, “what say you, fellow Sooner fans?” Is this that team? Before you answer, let’s take a stroll down memory lane so you can find a team that was that team for the sake of comparison.
In 2010 the only ranked teams that the Sooners played on the road were Mizzou (lost) and Okie Lite who while ranked #10 has far from an intimidating environment with 50,000 fans just up the highway. The Sooners did put it together and did break the aggies hearts, but it was more in that “shucks. This was our chance way.” If that team shows up on September 17th, there’s a chance these Sooners have what it takes to make a run.
In 2009, the team had the heart of the tin man where they only won in Lawrence to a #24 ranked Jayhawk team. 2008 will be known as the “year that defense forgot” where the Sooners drubbed a sad Washington team and a host of the unranked on the road while giving up an average of 27 on the road. Decent team but they lost the ultimate road game in the BCS championship game that was a home game for the Gators.
In 2007 the Sooners didn’t play a ranked team on the road and while ranked #3 themselves were robbed in Lubbock. 2006 saw the Sooners leave the game too close in Eugene so that one call made the difference and then they snuck out of College Station with a 1 point win over the #21 Aggies that was more Coach Fran’s loss the Bob’s gain. 2005 gave us an 8-4 team that won in KC against the Jayhawks and then got jobbed in Lubbock for the first time.
2004 saw the Sooners beat an outmatched #20 Okie Lite and #22 A&M on the road before the USC drubbing in the NC game. The best road team the Sooners beat in 2003 was an unranked Alabama. In ’02 the Sooners avoided a close call against unranked Mizzou (fake field goal to Chester I think) and then lost by 4 to an unranked A&M in College Station when their secondary was exposed and were humiliated three weeks later in Stillwater in what was surely this generation’s Golden Age of OSU football.
In 2001 The Sooners started the season ranked #3 and beat some unranked teams on the road until losing to #3 Nebraska in Lincoln and then to OSU 4 weeks later (See Golden Age of OSU football). 2000 saw the #8 Sooners break the hearts of Manhattan with a thriller versus #2 KSU, follow that up with a last minute interception to beat#23 A&M and a National Championship.
Are the 2011 Sooners that team? Ask me in 6 weeks.