It’s separation Saturday in the SEC.  This is the day that we can tell the contenders from the pretenders. 

Saturday
11:00 #17 Auburn at Arkansas, ESPiN
This is the 2nd week that Auburn will take their show on the road in an SEC matchup.  This time it’s against the Hogs who put it to Texas A&M last weekend.  The Tigers are 5th in Scoring Offense and 58th in Scoring defense so they will give up some points in this one.  Arkansas has been putting some points on the board other than their near shutout by Bama.  Arkansas is 111th in pass efficiency defense and 90th in scoring defense. 

Pick: Auburn is giving 3 points on the road.  First team to 50 wins and I think Auburn’s D stops Arkansas more than Arkansas’ D stops Auburn.  I’m picking Auburn to cover.

2:30 pm #3 Alabama at #20 Ole Miss, CBS
Ole Miss quickly fell out of the spot of media darling of the week after being beaten by a pretty tough gamecock team.  This game could decide their SEC fate.  The Tide rolls into town with the 8th ranked scoring O, 13th ranked scoring D and the balance that it takes to get business done on the road.  Ole Miss will want to take advantage of one of the Tide’s weaknesses by playing field position.  Bama will have lots of success on the ground but the Nutt may load the box and make them win it with McElroy’s arm.  Ole Miss will rely on their 6th ranked scoring D to get it done.   

Pick: Bama is favored by 5 on the road.  You can’t stop the sun from shining or the Tide from coming in. I’m going with Bama to cover.

7:00 pm #1 Florida at #4 LSU, ABC
I’m not sure what to do about this game.  If I cheer for anyone I’ll end up feeling dirty.  Yuk!  LSU is statistically overmatched in pretty much every category.  Could be because Florida has been playing the likes of George’s Small Engine Repair and Stenography Academy but now the real tests start.  The Mad Hatter will be sending pressure on Teblow and the Gators will be in max protection.  That means LSU defenders will be out on an island for much of the game which will test their 13th ranked pass efficiency D against Florida’s #1 ranked pass efficiency O.  Advantage LSU.  Loading the box also keeps the ball out of the hands of Demps.  LSU doesn’t have any lightning in a bottle on offense so their only chance is to keep the Gators in the 20’s.

Pick: Gators are favored by 8.  I’m taking the home dog and the points on this one.  I don’t think the Teblow can beat the Tigers with his arm.

Geaux Tigers